Questionnaire “Gulf”: differing views from high DirhamTruth Consultancy
Dirham exchange rate recorded during the current period record highs against the global and regional all currencies, benefiting from the rising strength of the dollar against these currencies, since the beginning of this year, and this will certainly reflect in some economic sectors in the country, either positively or negatively.
In a prospective study for «Gulf» included approximately 100 samples of economists, and the most senior financial economists, analysts, and the heads of companies and economic institutions operating in the country, about the effects of this rise, which touched on the study into four main themes are the impact of the high exchange rate dirham against other currencies positively or negatively, and the second axis, which touched on the most prominent sectors that may be affected for it to rise, while the third axis Turning to what is required by the investor or buyer about it to rise, while the fourth axis focused on rose investor and the buyer did about it to rise.
Regarding rising DRAM and various effects of negative or positive at the moment, and the extent of benefit caused by the investor or the extent of the pressures that have posed to economic sectors that, 50.2% of respondents said the rise in the dirham exchange rate, has a negative impact on most sectors, while 42.8 said he would not there will be no significant impacts, and 7% expressed optimism that its effects will be positive in the near term.
With regard to the most important economic sectors most affected by the rise dirham exchange rate, the worst affected tourism and hotel sector came to this rise by 32.8% of respondents, while trade and shipping sector came in second place with 26.7%, and the banking sector, banking in third place with 14.6%, and the sector Fourthly retail 15.6%, and the insurance sector and the property Fifth 10.3%.
The whole of experts who participated in the investment that the high exchange rate of the dirham pros include declining import prices and imported inflation, as well as enhancing the purchasing power of UAE nationals residing abroad, and increased oil revenues of the state values.
The cons rise Vtmahort about competitive weakening of the national tourism industry, in addition to pressure on foreign investment attraction, and the decline in demand for UAE real estate.
And on the need for investors and consumers behaved toward high-dirham exchange rate against other currencies, and the right thing for this rise, 50% of the sample said they will invest in gold and other currencies, he said, 18.5% said they will postpone borrowing until drop the dirham exchange rate against other currencies, he said, 17.7% said they would stop the transfer of funds abroad, as would delay a rate of 13.8%, of the sample payments to suppliers members to another time.
Regarding the question: study ranges Exchange dirham against other currencies, and how willing investors and consumers for it to rise, said 50% of respondents said that the rise in DRAM, suddenly comes for them, and the effects of the high exchange rate, will be limited for them, while 46.4% said they expect frequent price hikes for DRAM Exchange, they are fully preparedness and readiness for such cases, while over 3.6% of the respondents said that the rise in the exchange rate of the dirham, comes abruptly to them and affect them negatively.
It enhances the purchasing power of Emiratis and residents in the state
Businessmen and experts .. rising useful dirham condition inflation falls
There is no doubt that the high dollar is generally positive on the producing countries and oil exporters. The analysts, experts and businessmen polled by «Gulf» views the results of the survey showed that the UAE’s currency link to the dollar for many pros that private economy is still linked to oil imports to some extent.
The experts pointed out that the rise in the dollar exchange rate and therefore the dirham against the currencies will cut import costs and thus lead to a decline in inflation, which has not yet been reflected on all sectors, according to analysts and experts, who saw to rise in order to enhance the purchasing power of Emiratis and residents in the UAE in non-associated their currencies to the dollar.
Experts have not surprised the US currency rising to the increasing likelihood of US interest rate hike and thus interest in the UAE, but opinions varied on the impact of the rise in the sectors.
Tawhid Abdullah: Interest most important factor
Tawhid Abdullah, Chairman of Dubai Gold and Jewellery Group said that the impact of the dollar rise at the present time would be generally positive on the producing countries and oil exporters in general, as opposed to a negative impact on other countries, pointing out that the sectors most adversely affected by the high dollar exchange rates are the tourism and hotel sector banks and trade sector in general, and especially re-export.
Abdullah said: «the interest rate on the US dollar price is the most important factor, if interest rates rose from what it is, it will undoubtedly influenced the higher cost of borrowing, pointing out that to avoid the negative impact of a stronger dollar does not need to choose the currencies of payments basket do not mind investing in gold and other currencies. »
Amir Virtual: The best of the UAE
Chairman cities Group Amir Virtual Holdings says: «dirham and the dollar are linked to each other, and the high dollar is better for us fact that we import a lot of especially from Japan and Germany, including the automotive goods, and this makes the price cheaper for us when rising dollar».
He said that tourism may be affected by the high dollar that the tourists will deal in their trips and buy gifts and goods in dirhams, and in the case of the high value of the dirham tourists will pay it to search for the cheapest booking terms. Virtual stated that the investment in other currencies more appropriate in the case of the high value of the dollar to decline in value.
Amer old Mansouri: Effect on Tourism
Amer-old Salem Al Mansouri, Chairman of the Board Mansouri wealthy Group Plc, said: It would be a strong dollar negative impact on most economic sectors in the country, and will be sectors such as tourism, hotels, trade and shipping, banking and banking industry sectors most affected negatively by the high dollar exchange rates.
Mansouri adds: «to avoid the negative impact of a stronger dollar should stop Currency Converter abroad and invest in other currencies and gold».
Mansouri believes that the movement of the dollar comes suddenly, but a limited impact with the knowledge that the dirham’s dollar peg one causes of inflation and any rise or fall will have an impact for us.
Hamad Al-Awadi: the balance of imports and strong
Hamad Al Awadi, a member of the Board of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Abu Dhabi says: «If the strength of the dollar, the purchasing power of the dirham will rise and will have a strong balance of imports, at the same time there will be a negative impact in terms of exports». Al-Awadi said that the tourism sector will be affected significantly by the high value of the dollar, which will drive the tourists to look for other options for their travel and their reservations to the State, as well as to this matter affected the trade sector.
Awadi pointed out that many companies are working to conclude understandings with other foreign companies, which connects the currency exchange at a given price even trade is not affected and conclude agreements in this regard a period of time agreed upon between the companies.
He concluded Al Awadi said: «we are seeing things happening for the first time, such as Britain out of the EU crisis, the problem of the European countries with the influx of immigrants, and the effect this will have on their economies, as well as many of the factors that existed in the year 2008 crisis still exist to date have not It has been resolved, and that any fluctuations in the price of oil will occur changes in currency rates.
Reda Mosallam: useful for Import
Reda Mosallam, says Director General of Truth, The Economic Consultancy: «UAE dirham pegged to the dollar, a strong dollar is good for the state in the event of import, where the import bill would be reduced significantly, but when you export a strong dollar, the competitiveness will be less because the importer will find a high price for him, though most UAE’s exports of oil and its derivatives, and the impact will be in this case as much affected exports abroad.
He said a Mosallam to the tourism sector will be affected significantly by the rising dollar will experience arrivals of tourists from Europe this is the fact that the cost will rise by between 10-20%, as well as the industrial sector affected in the event of export products and all sectors that have entered in the debtor’s trade balance.
With regard to taking decisions to avoid any negative impact of the rising dollar, replies: «not permissible to take decisions in this regard and calculated the long term.»
Muqbali support: the impact of a limited but positive
Prime Emirati entrepreneurs association guaranteed Muqbali says: «rising dollar will have a positive impact on the overall economy, but it might be for this negative impact in some sectors such as tourism, trade and shipping, banking and banking».
Muqbali said that investment in other currencies, gold is the most appropriate to avoid any negative impact of the high dollar.
He pointed out that the movements of the dollar may come suddenly, but the impact would be limited in us.
Wadah Al Taha: Serves imports State
Expected financial analyst Wadah Al Taha, the dollar rise in the UAE’s exports affect, especially since most of the oil the nature of exports, but the interest is achieved through imports from countries not linked to the dollar, such as the European Union, Japan, India, and China, leading to reducing the cost of imports and the rate of inflation and thus can be that there would be interest from behind it.
Taha pointed out that the tourism sector will be affected to some extent up the dollar, if we look at the sector as a diverse and mixed, states pegged directly will reduce the number of arrivals including tourists to the state, advising doing motivational programs promotions to accommodate the difference in the currency, in light of weights to lift US interest rates, which would reduce the supply in the market, noting that the rise in the dollar, is something proactive to raise interest.
Mohammed Yasin: further increases in 2017
Stressed financial analyst Mohammed Ali Yasin, the UAE’s currency is directly correlated to the dollar, especially as the country’s imports are mainly dependent on oil, in turn it will reduce the cost of import and thus lead to a decline in the volume of inflation, saying that the consumer in the country has not benefited so far from those dips. He said Yassin: an individual who has entered Dirhams in the UAE became possessed purchasing power abroad about is pegged to the dollar countries, while the rise in the dollar was to be expected with the prospect of US interest rates, which would encourage its turn to buy the currency lifted, likely to boost the dollar from its strength in 2017. with regard to the effects of the dollar rise in the tourism sector, Yassin said, «the rise in the dollar would raise the cost of tourists which will lead to low numbers
Ayyub al-Faraj: Investing in Gold
Dr. Ayoub Faraj, CEO of International Real Estate resident says, will rise in the dollar negative impact on most sectors of the economy and the negative impact will be reflected clearly in the sectors of trade and shipping, retail and other sectors of the other, but to varying degrees.
Faraj adds: «to avoid the negative impact of a stronger dollar should invest in other currencies or gold, knowing that the movements of the dollar and an expected economic sector in general is preparing her».
Hussam al-Husseini: harmful investments
Stressed financial analyst Hossam al-Husseini, that any changes to the fundamentals of the economy strong and weak currencies, have an impact in the local economy, the fact that the UAE is not in isolation from the global economy, and this is the effect either short-term or long-term, pointing out that the UAE economy is a diversified economy is affected negatively and positively limited ranges, because the economic fundamentals in the country strong and clear.
He added: «the UAE currency pegged to the dollar, and any changes to the dollar reflected on the local currency, noting that the dollar negatively affects the present time in certain sectors, notably tourism sector, foreign inflows, and thus Altdzeh sector is also affected one way or another, especially since most of the Emirates Foreign investments in dollars, the strength of the dollar makes the net value of UAE investments abroad less.
Limiting the flow of investment and stimulates transfers
Analysts expect the greenback to continue to rise with the rate hike
Said Fouad Zeidan, an expert with the banking and finance and chief executive officer of the company «Expert The Line Financial Advisors» that the rise in the dollar and thus higher DRAM «Because the last to link the former was» Not surprisingly, it is expected because the improvement factors evident in the US economy, but that this rise will increase during the period the next, especially with the expected interest rate on the dollar by the US Federal reserve hike.
Zidane said that rise in the dirham exchange rate against foreign currencies beneficial for the national economy by 75%, and said that there are specific sectors will be affected negatively, and a relative of this rally, especially the tourism sector, namely tourism from Europe, Japan, and other countries that fall of their currencies against the dollar, adding that the export sector in the country depends heavily on key oil exports, and these exports have useful rising dollar because the international oil trade is in dollars.
According to Zidane will be affected by import sector from Europe and Japan, where the rise of such imports because prices will be less expensive than imports from the United States, he added, saying that arrivals in the country will be the beneficiaries of remittances to their countries with the dollar rising private migrant remittances from Egyptians because of the decline in the price of the pound against the dollar by more than 100%. He stressed that the entrants in such circumstances do not think to stop remittances to their home countries, but such transfers will rise with the rising dollar and the dirham, and stressed that the safe haven and the best for investors in gold these circumstances.
For his part, Rafik al-Massad, a financial expert at the International, Tredenk company stressed that the rise in the dollar, and therefore the dirham, is not surprising for him and for the experts all in the banking, financial and investment sector, since the fundamentals and performance of the economy in the United States is improving in most private indicators of employment and inflation indicators, The dollar is expected to continue to rise in the coming period with the direction of the US Federal reserve to raise interest rates during the coming period.
Said Massad The economic sectors that is possible to be adversely affected by the rising dollar is a private tourism from Europe and the States that their national currencies fell against the dollar service sectors, in addition to investments affected in the real estate and stock sectors, and some of the exports that are not of great importance in the national economy due to the weakness of the represented in the GDP as exports of aluminum, for example, and some light industry, but the import sector could see resuscitation and growth during the period, especially imports from Europe and the countries that fell their currencies against the dollar.
He stressed that the flow of investment from abroad is slowing with the rise of the dollar and the dirham, because the value of assets in the country become more expensive to private investors, investors from Europe. He stressed that CONVERSIONS_HTML arrivals are improving and growth of their countries with a higher dollar.
He said that «borrowers» affected banks affected by the rise of the dollar depends on the quality of borrowing, Valaguetrad for consumption may witness a decline due to the high cost of financing and high interest, but borrowing to finance tourism and service or purchase the assets of projects abroad «except the United States» could see improvement private investment in Europe, Japan and China. He pointed out that borrowing from abroad if there is a chance, it will be the best private borrowing from euro-zone countries, Japan and China, since interest rates are close to zero with the followers of central banks quantitative easing policy.
For his part, he pointed Atta Mpharjh, CEO of Islamic securities, to the dollar to rise in DRAM and would limit investment flows from the private outside of the euro zone countries, Japan, Britain and China, because the assets in the state will cost high for them, taking into account the difference in the currencies of these countries the dollar exchange rate an interview, said that the import sector will increase activity with the rise of the dollar, and the real estate sector may slow further with the rise of the dollar, as well as limit the rise in the dollar from tourism activity from abroad, especially from Europe, China, Japan, Britain, and simultaneously, the rising dollar Tourism from the state stimulates abroad.
He said the rising dollar is not a surprise for him, and will continue to rise in the coming period with the lifting of dollar interest rates by the US Federal Reserve in the coming period.
He Mpharjh The safe haven for investors now is gold, stocks and bonds markets are turbulent with the decline in the return on this investment, but he was a greater risk, especially with the atmosphere tense geopolitics in the region and the world.
The «Mpharjh» that the dollar rise in DRAM and stimulate arrivals to transfer to private entrants from the Egyptians their countries with the downturn of the Egyptian pound to more than 100% against the dollar. Despite all the factors affecting the economic cuts in the state, either negative or positive by the high dollar and the dirham, but the national economy is still benefiting from the dirham pegged to the dollar, and check this policy significant benefits for the national economy, and give it more stability.